Mortgage rates are back around 7%—and the impact is hitting starter-home buyers first.
The latest local housing data shows demand falling an average of 23% across most price ranges below $550,000. But homes between $400,000 and $450,000 are moving in the opposite direction as buyers lower their price range to keep payments affordable.
In this video, I explain why this may be the first domino—and how continued weakness at the entry level could eventually affect higher-priced homes.
If you’re considering selling near the $450,000 threshold—or buying above it—your strategy matters more than ever.
Market data current as of September 2026.
Serving Knox, Blount and Loudon counties.
Waiting for Lower Rates? Here’s What You May Be Missing
Waiting for mortgage rates to come down may sound like the safer move—but a lower rate doesn’t necessarily make the entire move easier.
The 10-year Treasury yield has reached about 4.81%, its highest level in nearly three years. But the interest rate is only one part of the decision. If you’re selling one home and buying another, what really matters is the difference between the two markets.
In Knox County, homes between $400,000 and $500,000 currently have about two to three months of inventory. Between $600,000 and $650,000, inventory is nearly six months. Those higher-priced homes are also receiving about 25% fewer showings per listing, and it’s taking roughly 75% more showings to produce a pending sale.
That means you could be selling in a relatively active market and buying where you have more choices, more negotiating power and a better opportunity to ask for concessions. Waiting for lower rates could bring more buyers back, increase competition and make a home-sale-contingent offer much harder to get accepted.
If you’re considering a move within the next year or two, let’s look at both sides of it—the market you’d be selling in and the market you’d be buying in—before deciding whether waiting will actually help.
What I’d Do Differently If I Were Moving This Fall
If I were buying or selling a home in East Tennessee this fall, I would approach the market very differently than I would have just a few years ago.
The reason is simple: there isn’t one East Tennessee housing market anymore.
Conditions can change dramatically depending on your location and price range — and right now I’m seeing especially important shifts around the $600K, $700K and $800K price thresholds.
In this video, I break down what I would personally do if I were moving this fall, including:
Why I wouldn’t price primarily from comparable sales
Why I’d price for today’s buyer instead of yesterday’s closed sale
Why I’d consider pricing slightly below market value to create competition
Why the first week on the market is crucial
Why I wouldn’t automatically wait until spring to sell
What I’d do if I bought within the last three years and needed to sell
Where I’d look for negotiating leverage if I were buying
Why selling in one market segment and buying in another can completely change the strategy
I track supply, demand, showing activity and pricing trends over time so I can see where individual market segments are strengthening, weakening — and where those trends are heading.
Median Home Sales Price Up 14%… But Are Home Values Really Rising?
The median sales price in Knoxville keeps rising - but does that really mean home values are going up? I recently dug deeper into a sample of West Knoxville sales, comparing the same six-month period from 2023 through 2026. The headline number looked strong but when I broke the market down by individual price ranges, a very different picture appeared. In most segments, typical sale prices were essentially flat. So how can the overall median rise when values are really flat?
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